A few Oscar predictions

Just thought I'd pop in before things get too underway to make a few quick predictions. I'm not actually watching the proceedings, and I've only seen about half of the nominated movies, so I'm probably just as qualified as most to comment on this.

Best Picture, Directing, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
It would take one heck of a movie to best this one. It's big and epic and nearly perfect in execution, just the kind of thing the Academy eats up. The sound design is brilliant, hauntingly quiet for the most part, savagely loud where appropriate. It's also brilliantly adapted from the novel, nearly word for word in places, and different only in ways that I feel improved it (at least for a movie).

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
I may not have "gotten" this movie fully, but Day-Lewis gave the definition of a powerhouse performance.

Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Really, is there any competition? It may not be Pixar's best, but Pixar's worst is better than the best most other animation studios can do. Honestly, they should just call this "The Pixar Award".

Achievement in Special Effects, Sound Mixing: Transformers
I may not have liked the movie much, but the special effects were phenomenal, and a big part of that was the sound. I haven't seen many of the others in these categories, but they'd be hard pressed to be better than this.

And that's all I'm sure about. I either haven't seen enough of the nominees in the other categories, or I don't have much of an opinion. In the morning I'll check it out and see if I was right about any of these. Why am I not watching? First of all I'm busy watching 24 on DVD, second of all I have one last prediction:

The Show Itself will be Long and Drawn Out
The Oscars specialize in being self important, and self congratulatory, even if the host this year is an awesome choice. Besides, I'll be able to see the good parts on YouTube tomorrow.

UPDATE: Well, I called Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay for No Country For Old Men. Danielle Day-Lewis got Best Actor as I predicted. Also, predictably, Ratatouille took best animated feature. Other than that, well, I was wrong. There Will Be Blood was a fine looking movie, so I can understand it taking Cinematography. I'm thrilled that Once took Best Song. I haven't heard the competition so I wasn't going to make a prediction, but the music in that movie really was great. I'm curious about the Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Film Editing awards going to The Bourne Ultimatum. I can see editing, but I don't remember anything terribly special about the sound. Maybe that's why it won, though, by making itself invisible to casual observation.